Markets & economy

As bottom-up stock pickers we are less concerned about the market and economy than factors that make individual shares attractive. However, we acknowledge that we need to bear in mind the context in which we must invest. Here we share our long-term views on the market and economy.   

Articles in "Markets & economy"

An age of anxiety

By Sandy McGregor on 22 Oct 2019

reading time: 3 mins

We are living in an age of anxiety. After decades in which the norm has been optimism, everywhere market participants are extremely nervous about evolving an...

Broadened horizons, local learnings

By Nick Ndiritu and Leonard Krüger on 22 Oct 2019

reading time: 7 mins

Leonard Krüger and Nick Ndiritu look at how we have tailored our investment philosophy and process to invest in Frontier Africa markets. They discuss lessons...

South African investors need to fall out of love with equities

By Kevin Lings on 30 Jul 2019

reading time: 6 mins

South Africa’s equity market capitalisation equates to more than 200% of the country’s GDP, the highest proportion in the world and a level that is simply no...

Trade wars

By Sandy McGregor on 29 Jul 2019

reading time: 18 mins

In recent months, we have observed increasing uncertainty and concern among our clients about what impact rising international tensions, particularly the tra...

Global business conditions deteriorate

By Sandy McGregor on 12 Jul 2019

reading time: 2 mins

Negative news about the global economy persists. Purchasing manager indices continue to signal a widespread deterioration in business conditions. Even in the...

Guarded optimism on new Zimbabwe dollar

By Nick Ndiritu on 03 Jul 2019

reading time: 5 mins

This past quarter, Zimbabwe reintroduced its national currency, reviving bitter memories of the hyperinflation period before the infamous Zimbabwe dollar was...

Finding value in frontier African markets

By Nick Ndiritu on 29 Apr 2019

reading time: 12 mins

Across corporate boardrooms in South Africa, a number of management teams and institutional investors are grappling with a vexing question: Is investing in...

Global slowdown continues to take its toll

By Sandy McGregor on 26 Apr 2019

reading time: 2 mins

The synchronous global slowdown, which commenced in the last quarter of 2018, continues to take its toll. While Europe is not in recession, it has returned t...

Riding out volatility in African equity markets

By Nick Ndiritu on 04 Feb 2019

reading time: 4 mins

Africa’s equity markets delivered disappointing returns in 2018. The MSCI Africa index was down -24%, while the MSCI Africa ex-SA index was down -13%. None o...

South Africa's fiscal dilemma

By Sandy McGregor on 25 Jan 2019

reading time: 11 mins

Faced with sky-high debt, a stagnant economy and disappointing tax collections, South Africa is on an unsustainable fiscal path. Difficult choices have to be...

Global economy losing momentum

By Sandy McGregor on 18 Jan 2019

reading time: 3 mins

After two years of strong synchronous growth the global economy is losing momentum. Almost without exception the most recent purchasing manager’s indices are...

A volatile quarter for emerging market equity and currency markets

By Duncan Artus on 12 Oct 2018

reading time: 4 mins

Emerging market equity and currency markets had a very volatile quarter. Vulnerabilities, both economic and political, are being exposed as global financial...

Global growth accelerates but emerging markets under pressure

By Sandy McGregor on 05 Oct 2018

reading time: 3 mins

Following a slower first quarter, the rate of global economic growth accelerated during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with Europe being the only notable...

Increasing policy uncertainty

By Sandy McGregor on 20 Jul 2018

reading time: 3 mins

With few exceptions, notably India, most countries experienced slower economic growth in the first quarter of 2018. Anecdotal evidence suggests that that the...

SA needs to unlock its 'demographic dividend' by getting the private sector to invest

By Kevin Lings on 18 Jul 2018

reading time: 5 mins

South Africa needs to stop looking to government spending as the catalyst for economic growth and should instead foster a more conducive environment for...

Zimbabwe in transition

By Nick Ndiritu on 06 Jul 2018

reading time: 6 mins

Zimbabwe’s election on 30 July 2018 heralds a new beginning after the abrupt end to President Robert Mugabe’s 37-year reign in November 2017. We are not...

Approaching a tipping point?

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Jun 2018

reading time: 11 mins

After a strong start to the year, global investors have been spooked by a diverse combination of developments, including a slowdown in global economic...

Demystifying Africa’s debt markets

By Nick Ndiritu on 15 Feb 2018

reading time: 4 mins

Investors seeking diversification outside of South Africa can easily overlook the investment opportunities in other African markets. It is tempting to start ...

Value investing in Nigeria

By Nick Ndiritu on 16 Aug 2017

reading time: 5 mins

Active managers in Africa and frontier markets have to counter the perceived higher-risk of investing in volatile markets prone to political and economic...

Valuation of Nigerian and Zimbabwean holdings in the Allan Gray Africa ex-SA Equity Fund

By Nick Ndiritu on 12 May 2017

reading time: 4 mins

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has established a new foreign exchange (FX) platform for investors and exporters, effective 24 April 2017. The exchange...

Nigeria: Finding opportunities where others fear to tread

By Andrew Lapping on 31 Mar 2017

reading time: 11 mins

Wow, that valuation changed quickly! A few years ago investors were very excited about investing in Africa outside of South Africa. People spoke of Africa...

Tough times for African equities

By Andrew Lapping on 03 Feb 2017

reading time: 4 mins

Most African equity markets had a difficult 2016, generating negative dollar returns. The worst performers were Egypt and Nigeria, which fell 47% and 41%...

LISTEN : What is the sweet spot for the oil price?

By Rory Kutisker-Jacobson on 25 Jan 2017

listening time: 20 mins

In the face of an OPEC oil production cut, shale producer activity and US President Donald Trump proposing various far-reaching changes what can we expect fr...

Investing in Africa’s debt markets

By Nick Ndiritu on 30 Sep 2016

reading time: 8 mins

Patient capital dedicated to Africa’s capital markets is scarce, especially during economic or political downturns. Nick Ndiritu explains how long-term...

How to think about risk in Nigeria

By Nick Ndiritu on 11 Jul 2016

reading time: 4 mins

Our investment approach does not change even during periods of extreme market volatility. As always, we carefully consider investment opportunities where ris...

Gold: A history of its price

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Jun 2016

reading time: 11 mins

Inventories play a significant role in the pricing of commodities: when they are low prices tend to rise, while excessive inventories depress prices. However...

Consumption trends in emerging markets: Opportunities and pitfalls

By Duncan Artus and Tamryn Lamb on 23 Nov 2015

reading time: 4 mins

Looking to capitalise on the rise of the emerging market consumer? Beware of the potential pitfalls .

The collapse of the oil price and its consequences

By Sandy McGregor on 31 Dec 2014

reading time: 7 mins

The dramatic collapse of oil prices at the end of last year caught most market participants by surprise. For three and a half years, between February 2011 an...

Understanding the risk of loss in Africa ex-SA

By Andrew Lapping on 30 Jun 2014

reading time: 9 mins

A small percentage of the foreign component of our Balanced and Stable Funds is invested in Africa and investors looking for greater exposure to the region c...

The nature of contrarian investing

By Duncan Artus on 31 Dec 2012

reading time: 7 mins

The average investor cannot avoid being bullish at market tops and bearish at bottoms. This produces periods of speculation and panic within the normal up an...

China's Malthusian challenge

By Sandy McGregor on 31 Mar 2011

reading time: 9 mins

Two years since the global financial crisis and commodity prices are back at the record levels of June 2008. This growth has been about five years quicker th...

Deflation

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Sep 2010

reading time: 8 mins

It seems the world may divide into two distinct camps: the mature economies gripped by deflation and stagnation, and the emerging markets, which continue to...

The triumph of the markets

By Sandy McGregor on 31 Dec 2009

reading time: 8 mins

It is the nature of markets to reward success and eliminate what is unsustainable. During the past year we have seen a dramatic manifestation of this process...

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